Pollster’s Primetime Analysis of May Primaries Highlights 2026 Trends
May 26, 2026Byline: Political Trade Secrets Production
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Across Kentucky, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana and Alabama, Dustin Olson, host of Political Trade Secrets and lead pollster and Managing Partner at American Pulse Research & Polling, in primetime television appearances pointed to a clear pattern: President Donald Trump’s endorsement continues to matter in Republican primaries, especially when campaigns have the money, time and media coverage needed to make sure voters hear about it.
That was the through line in Olson’s analysis of the May primaries during recent primetime appearances on NEWSMAX, Scripps News, and NTD News.
Central takeaway: Trump’s endorsement can move Republican primary voters, but campaigns still have to amplify it through paid media, earned media, voter contact and a clear closing message.
5/18/2026
Appearing on “Finnerty” with host Rob Finnerty, on NEWSMAX, Olson previewed Kentucky’s primary and said late movement in the race showed the continued power of Trump’s endorsement.
Olson noted that Kentucky has limited early voting, which makes Election Day turnout especially important. While Thomas Massie may have been better positioned with early voters, Olson said polling conducted by American Pulse’s Polling Club suggests undecided voters are breaking toward the Trump-backed candidate.
“What we’ve seen with the Trump endorsement is that if you have enough money behind it, if you get it early enough, the undecideds break towards the person who has the Trump endorsement,” Olson said.
Looking at the race, Olson predicted that Massie could win the early vote, but that Gallrein is positioned to win Election Day voting if turnout holds.
Olson also discussed Georgia’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, where no candidate received Trump’s endorsement. With Mike Collins leading and Derek Dooley and Buddy Carter competing for the second spot, Olson said the primary was guaranteed to go to a runoff, which in Georgia is only 28 days, so the outcome of the runoff would depend on which campaign could quickly consolidate resources and support.
5/20/2026
On Scripps News, with host Holly Firfer, Olson said a big national takeaway from May’s primaries is that Trump’s endorsement record remains strong and that the likely outcome is that the Republican Senate conference would be more aligned with the president after the 2026 cycle.
“The president went 100% for his endorsements,” Olson said about the Tuesday, May 19 primaries, calling it a sign of Trump’s continued influence inside the party.
Olson argued that whether Republicans maintain control of the Senate or not, the conference will become more cohesive. He pointed to Louisiana and Kentucky as examples of races where the GOP electorate chose candidates more supportive of Trump’s agenda.
He also previewed the Texas runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, saying the public polling showed a close race and that the Trump endorsement of Paxton would matter because of the volume of media coverage surrounding it.
Olson once again reiterated that endorsements are most powerful when campaigns use them effectively: by raising money, advertising them and making sure voters know about them. In the case of the Texas runoff, the level of earned media about the endorsement at a moment when Paxton was already pulling ahead would likely replace the need for an ad budget other endorsed candidates have needed.
American Pulse Research & Polling has tracked several 2026 U.S. Senate primaries through polling, survey research, public opinion analysis and polling briefings. The firm conducts polling and research across multiple sectors, working with Republican, Democratic, nonpartisan and private-sector clients and organizations.
5/26/2026
The following Tuesday, moments after polls closed in the Texas runoff, Olson joined NTD News with host Tiffany Meier to explain how the late Trump endorsement of Ken Paxton appeared to have had the expected effect.
Olson explained that American Pulse has been tracking several U.S. Senate primaries and has repeatedly seen undecided voters move toward the Trump-endorsed candidate in the closing stretch.
“It’s very clear that the Trump endorsement makes a difference, especially in the closing moments of a campaign,” Olson said.
In Texas, Olson said that at the time of the president’s endorsement, Paxton had already been leading in most of the few polls available, but nonstop media coverage around Trump’s endorsement helped undecided voters break his way and would contribute to what Olson predicted would be a sizable win once returns started rolling in.
Looking ahead to the midterms, Olson said the economy remains central. He pointed to inflation, gas prices, immigration and waste and fraud in government as key issues shaping the 2026 environment.
While the midterm dynamic typically benefits the party out of power, Olson said Republicans could be in a stronger position than many observers acknowledge if gas prices come down and the Iran-related economic pressure eases.
Taken together, the May primaries reinforced a defining feature of the Republican Party in the current moment: Trump’s endorsement moves primary voters, but campaigns must amplify it.
The endorsement alone is not always enough. When paired with money, media attention and a clear closing message, it can reshape races, and already has reshaped the next Republican Senate conference.
For campaigns, candidates and communicators, the lesson is broader than any one primary. Voter sentiment can shift quickly, especially in battleground polling and competitive primaries, but data-driven insights help show which voters are moving, why they are moving and what messages are breaking through.
To access polling on the 2026 midterms, receive polling briefings and strategy sessions, and suggest state, local and federal elections for American Pulse Research & Polling to examine next, join the American Pulse’s Polling Club, either for free or as a Premium member.
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For campaigns, advocacy organizations, companies, and public affairs teams, the lesson is clear: winning strategy starts with understanding what voters and audiences actually think, crafting a message to speak to that, and formulating a plan to execute on it.
American Pulse Research & Polling provides custom polling, multimodal surveys, public opinion research, market research, polling briefings, toplines, crosstabs, and strategic insights.
For organizations that need strategy and execution, Olson Strategies & Advertising provides campaign strategy, advertising, direct mail, fundraising support, voter-contact programs, and strategic messaging.
For deeper conversations about campaign mechanics, polling, political strategy and what really moves voters, readers can also like, follow and subscribe to Dustin Olson’s Political Trade Secrets podcast.
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